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☆ India's outsourcing giants cut hiring; disheartening for economy, students
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Navamya Ganesh Acharya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

There are pockets of optimism elsewhere in the services sector - especially in accounting, where there is a surge in hiring. NLB sees a 20-25% drop in IT employee additions in the first half of the current financial year, while TeamLease Digital expects a 40% decrease for the entire year. Nasscom declined comment on the hiring slowdown. That has "surely left applicants concerned about future prospects", said staffing firm Xpheno's co-founder Kamal Karanth, who highlighted how current hiring activity was "under a third of what was recorded in the buoyant peak". Pai highlighted sectors such as financial services, consumer goods, specialised manufacturing, medicine, law, chartered accounting and other services as more viable options.

Persons: Rohit Azad, Azad, Rishad Premji, Sakshi Gupta, Sachin Alug, NLB, Nilanjan Roy, Nasscom, Gautam, Xpheno's, Kamal Karanth, LTIMindtree, Karanth, Siana, Siddharth Pai, Pai, Dhanya Skariachan, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: New, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Wipro, HDFC, Apple, Citigroup, American Express, Europe's Credit Suisse, UBS, NLB Services, TeamLease, IT, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Reuters Graphics, Sethuraman, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Punjab

The government expects growth could remain around 6.5% in the current fiscal year, despite risks emerging from a global slowdown. Asia's third-largest economy expanded faster than the forecast of 5.0% by economists in a Reuters poll in the last quarter of the 2022/23 fiscal year through March, up from a revised 4.5% in the previous quarter. She added growth numbers, however, reflected optimism for the Indian economy despite global headwinds. Reuters GraphicsFederal government spending, constituting about 10% of GDP, rose 2.3% year-on-year in the latest quarter, compared with a revised 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter. Currently, 45% of India's workforce is employed in the farm sector, which contributes just 15% to the economy.

Persons: Anantha Nageswaran, Sakshi Gupta, Narendra Modi, Economists, Sarita Chaganti Singh, Shivangi Acharya, Nishit Navin, Emelia Sithole, David Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Federal, Monitoring, Thomson Locations: DELHI, India, HDFC, Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru

☆ India's forex reserves at comfortable level due to RBI, dollar - economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 9 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves are at a comfortable level currently, benefiting from the Reserve Bank of India's persistent intervention and the likelihood of less volatile revaluation changes, economists said. Reuters GraphicsSince October 2022, the RBI has been rebuilding the reserves, taking advantage of the rupee's recovery. Reuters GraphicsSince October, "comfort on the level of reserves has improved significantly," said Gaura Sen Gupta, economist at IDFC First Bank. "Reserves (both spot and forwards) are now equivalent to 10.4 months of import cover, compared with about 8.9% in Oct 2022." And provides an added layer of comfort as far as the adequacy of forex reserves is concerned.

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ Indian rupee set to weaken further in coming months: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, April 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, will fall further in the coming months and is expected to drift back to trade around where it is now in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists. Median forecasts from 40 respondents to a March 31-April 4 Reuters poll showed the rupee trading at 82.40/dollar by the end of the month and 82.55/dollar by the end of June. However, a fifth of respondents forecast the currency will change hands at 82.90/dollar or weaker as early as next month. A strong majority of poll respondents who answered an additional question, 13 of 16, said risks to their forecast were skewed towards the rupee being even weaker over the next month. "A key driver of the Indian rupee will continue to be the RBI's FX intervention strategy," noted Lin Li, head of global markets research Asia at MUFG.

India's annual retail inflation rate (INCPIY=ECI) rose to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December, government data showed on Monday. January's retail inflation was above the Reserve Bank of India's upper targeted limit of 6% for the first time since October and much higher than the 5.9% estimate, according to a Reuters poll of 44 analysts. Food price inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket, rose to 5.94% in January from 4.19% in December. STICKY CORE INFLATIONIndia's core inflation in January was nearly flat at 6.09% to 6.10% from last month, according to two economists. "We expect core inflation to remain elevated in Feb-March given the ongoing pass-through of higher input costs by producers," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.

BENGALURU, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, is forecast to strengthen very little in coming months and still trade above the 80 per dollar mark a year from now, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists found. The risk, however, is if U.S. inflation does not fall as much as markets are hoping it does in coming months. Even if it's marginally higher than what the market is currently expecting ... that could lead to a brief dollar rally and pressure the rupee." The latest Reuters poll of 43 foreign exchange analysts, taken after the Feb. 1 budget, showed the rupee strengthening just over 1% to 81.75 per dollar in the next six months. (For other stories from the February Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Anant Chandak; Polling by Madhumita Gokhale and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India Budget 2023: Here's what the experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

"This budget, therefore, has rewritten the rules for financilisation of savings in India, which will induce expenditures rather incentivise savings. LAKSHMI IYER, CEO-INVESTMENT ADVISORY, KOTAK INVESTMENT ADVISORS LTD"India budget 2023 has offered a multi-dimensional view. The 3 Cs which stand out are - Capex increase - consumption boost - capital gains tax status quo. Additionally, the budget has provided significant direct tax benefits to individuals which will help increase disposable income and support spending. The budget keeps in mind the needs of future India while focusing on Artificial Intelligence and machine learning.

BENGALURU, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months. A majority of FX analysts, 11 of 17, said a Feb. 1 budget that focuses on fiscal consolidation would help the Indian rupee the most in the near term. None of the respondents expected the rupee to be stronger than 75 per dollar, where it started 2022, at any point this year. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said the "fiscal deficit is still too high and needs to be reduced" for the rupee to find some support. "High fiscal deficit will hurt the savings-investment balance, curb improvement in current account deficit, and complicate the RBI's efforts to temper inflation pressures."

The monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the RBI and three external members, raised the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) to 6.25% in a majority decision. "The MPC was of the view that further calibrated monetary policy action was warranted to keep inflation expectations anchored, break core inflation persistence and contain second round effects,” Das said as he announced the monetary policy committee's decision. We see a possibility of another 25 bps rate hike before a prolonged pause," Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank said. A 6.8% growth (rate) is robust," Das said. The Indian rupee dipped against the dollar after the policy decision and comments on inflation, while government bond yields rose.

☆ India cenbank hikes key policy rate by 35 basis points
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

However, the pace of rate hikes is reducing from 50 bps to 35 bps, in line with expected global hikes." The market needs to keep a close watch on global rate hikes and sticky core inflation." "We expect RBI to go for another 25 bps hike in its next policy, with the terminal rate at 6.5%. ANUJ PURI, CHAIRMAN, ANAROCK GROUP, MUMBAI"The 35 bps rate hike by the RBI - the fifth consecutive rate hike this year - comes as no surprise. We see a possibility of another 25 bps rate hike before a prolonged pause."

☆ India's economy likely slowed to annual 6.2% in July-Sept: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT on Wednesday, Nov. 30BENGALURU, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Indian economy likely returned to a more normal 6.2% annual growth rate in July-September after double-digit expansion in the previous quarter, but weaker exports and investment will curb future activity, a Reuters poll showed. In April-June, Asia's third-largest economy showed explosive growth of 13.5% from a year earlier thanks mainly to the corresponding period in 2021 having been depressed by pandemic-control restrictions. The 6.2% annual growth forecast for latest quarter in a Nov. 22-28 Reuters poll of 43 economists was a tad lower than the RBI's 6.3% view. Meanwhile, the RBI raised its key policy interest rate to 5.9% from 4.0% in May and is widely expected to add another 60 basis points by the end of March. "Between December and February, the headwinds to growth may become more evident," said Deutsche Bank's Das.

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